New Caledonia: "The Bougival Agreement only serves to contain a possible autonomist contagion effect"

The signing of the Bougival Agreement on July 12th is presented by the French executive as a "historic step forward" for New Caledonia. In reality, this text, by establishing a disguised federalism under Parisian control, responds as much to local concerns as to a broader worry: to contain a possible autonomist contagion effect in all the French overseas territories, and even in Corsica.

Under the guise of consensus, the Bougival Agreement perpetuates New Caledonia's continued affiliation with France, while granting it institutional adjustments that are more akin to extensive decentralization than self-determination. Sovereign powers remain in the hands of the State, while structural reforms can only be adopted by a three-fifths majority of the Caledonian Congress. This political barrier effectively makes any prospect of independence virtually impossible to achieve.

This system offers Paris a dual advantage. First, it is intended to neutralize the Kanak independence movement in the short and medium term. Second, it constitutes an institutional model that can be reproduced in other French territories that seek greater autonomy, without risking severing ties with the Republic.

New Caledonia is not an isolated case. French Guiana and French Polynesia also possess vast strategic maritime territories. Their possible withdrawal from French control would deprive Paris of a significant portion of its exclusive economic zone and weaken its position as the world's second-largest maritime power.

The specter of contagion extends beyond overseas borders. In mainland France, Corsica continues to demand greater autonomy, with a special status that Paris is reluctant to grant. The Bougival Agreement, by offering a framework for autonomy under central control, could serve as a precedent applicable to the Mediterranean island: granting specific powers while locking down the levers of real sovereignty.

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